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FCPO Outlook for 24 March 2018

FCPO - Daily Chart: Bearish

On 12 March 2018, FCPO hit 100% projection target level of 2349 from swing of 19 January 2018 (smaller wave 1) and 1 March 2018 (smaller wave 2).

Price rallied from then on making higher highs and lows. Fundamentally it was driven by weaker ringgit against the dollar, higher exports expectation and Indonesia winning anti-dumping appeal against EU on biodiesel. Nonetheless, as a chartist, these news doesn’t cloud our price action analysis.

Technically, the rally in FCPO movement is still Bearish.

Currently the price movement is being kept by Kijun-sen (red line on the chart) and the upper line of Andrew’s Pitchfork as well as resistance level of 2439.

Kumo cloud, above the price, still putting a bearish pressure on Price.

Support at the moment is at time of writing is at 2422 level and the Kijun-sen. Nonetheless, take note that Stochastics still above zero and within the Bullish zone.

To add objectivity in our analysis, we add our Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci projections and retracements.

Noted there is a slight revision of our count compared to our analysis in the previous writeup. Overall based on the count FCPO outlook remains Bearish.

There are two possible scenarios and count on the movement.

First count (Blue count) showing that potential for FCPO to move higher to 2488 area and the lower triangle trendline to complete smaller wave ii retracement before heading for wave iii down.

Alternative count (Red count) showing that wave ii retracement has completed and will further make way for wave iii down move. This also coincides with potential Double Top formation at 2455 zone. I favour the alternative count and expect that on Monday 26 March 2018, FCPO will gap down.

Nonetheless, overall view is still Bearish on both counts.

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